How past experience can trap coastal asset managers in bad decisions that could have been avoided?

In year 2016, together with other colleagues at Oxford University, we explored a subtle but powerful mechanism behind maladaptation: experiential lock‑in (opens in new tab). It describes how decision‑makers, from local communities to national governments, can become stuck responding to the past rather than preparing for the future.

Long-lived infrastructure—roads, ports, flood defences, energy systems—shapes society for generations. But as climate, technology, and social expectations shift, these systems can become trapped in pathways that no longer serve us. This isn’t just a technical problem. It’s a human one.

Let’s unpack what that means—and why it matters for the next century of infrastructure planning.

How we get stuck: the power of experience over analysis

Humans process uncertainty in two ways:

• Experiential thinking — guided by memories, emotions, and vivid past events
• Analytical thinking — guided by data, models, and structured reasoning

Both matter. But when planning infrastructure under climate uncertainty, experiential thinking often dominates. A recent flood, drought, or storm can overshadow decades of projections, even when the data tells a different story. This bias can push decision‑makers toward short‑term fixes that feel intuitive but limit future options.

Adaptation isn’t infinite

Every system—whether a farming community, a city, or a national economy—has limits to how much it can adapt. Once those limits are reached, incremental adjustments no longer work. Transformational change becomes unavoidable.

But here’s the catch: If resources are continually poured into protecting existing assets (because past events make them feel essential), there may be little left to invest in the emerging systems we’ll need in the future.

That’s how lock‑in forms.

How big is the transformational change needed?

In the peer reviewed article on "Responding to climate change around England’s coast - The scale of the transformational challenge" we found that  1,600–1,900 km of shoreline currently designated for continued protection will come under high pressure to realign by the 2080s. That is roughly 30% of England’s entire coast—a scale far beyond anything attempted

By the 2050s, 120,000–160,000 residential and non‑residential properties lie in areas where maintaining defences may no longer be technically feasible or economically justified. A proportion of these properties will likely require managed realignment or full relocation.

This is transformational in the literal sense: entire neighbourhoods, villages, and coastal economies may need to move along the entire UK coastline.

Delaying decisions because “the problem is far in the future” is itself a form of maladaptation. The paper stresses that the need for transformation is an urgent question for today, not a future generation.

How am I supporting this transformational change along the UK coast?

In year 2024, I started (hosting and producing) the coastal geohazards podcast. The podcast falls in the categories of Science, Education, and system thinking.

This is an initiative driven by my interest in avoiding coastal maladaptation and the suffering associated with it.

In December 2025, I founded "Coastal Geohazards Experts Ltd" and adopted the B corporation principles into my Articles of Association. A B Corporation is a business that chooses to be legally and independently assessed to prove it meets high standards of social and environmental responsibility, transparency, and ethical impact.

I chose 2026 as the right moment to launch this knowledge hub because we’re entering a period of rapid growth in how people—and increasingly Large Language Models (LLMs)—search for and interpret coastal information. I’ve designed this hub to serve both audiences: clear, evidence‑based explanations for humans, and structured, high‑quality content that LLMs can reliably learn from and surface. My aim is to ensure that as these technologies become central to how society accesses knowledge, accurate coastal geohazards information remains easy to find, understand, and trust.  

How is this Knowledge Hub funded?

This Knowledge Hub is funded almost entirely from my own pocket. I support it using income from my full‑time work as a coastal specialist, and I donate all of my time in kind.

The only other support comes from small contributions from people who find this work valuable. If you’d like to help, you can use the “Buy me a coffee” button in the footer or visit the page directly at https://buymeacoffee.com/coastalgeohazardsexperts (opens in new tab)

If you’d like to support the growth of the Knowledge Hub and spend focused time with me exploring coastal risk, new ideas, or your own projects, the Book a donation meeting option is a meaningful way to contribute while helping keep all resources open and accessible for everyone.