How past experience can trap coastal asset managers in bad decisions that could have been avoided?

In year 2016, together with other colleagues at Oxford University, we explored a subtle but powerful mechanism behind maladaptation: experiential lock‑in (opens in new tab). It describes how decision‑makers, from local communities to national governments, can become stuck responding to the past rather than preparing for the future.

Long-lived infrastructure—roads, ports, flood defences, energy systems—shapes society for generations. But as climate, technology, and social expectations shift, these systems can become trapped in pathways that no longer serve us. This isn’t just a technical problem. It’s a human one.

Let’s unpack what that means—and why it matters for the next century of infrastructure planning.

How we get stuck: the power of experience over analysis

Humans process uncertainty in two ways:

• Experiential thinking — guided by memories, emotions, and vivid past events
• Analytical thinking — guided by data, models, and structured reasoning

Both matter. But when planning infrastructure under climate uncertainty, experiential thinking often dominates. A recent flood, drought, or storm can overshadow decades of projections, even when the data tells a different story. This bias can push decision‑makers toward short‑term fixes that feel intuitive but limit future options.

Adaptation isn’t infinite

Every system—whether a farming community, a city, or a national economy—has limits to how much it can adapt. Once those limits are reached, incremental adjustments no longer work. Transformational change becomes unavoidable.

But here’s the catch: If resources are continually poured into protecting existing assets (because past events make them feel essential), there may be little left to invest in the emerging systems we’ll need in the future.

That’s how lock‑in forms.

How big is the transformational change needed?

In the peer reviewed article on "Responding to climate change around England’s coast - The scale of the transformational challenge" we found that  1,600–1,900 km of shoreline currently designated for continued protection will come under high pressure to realign by the 2080s. That is roughly 30% of England’s entire coast—a scale far beyond anything attempted

By the 2050s, 120,000–160,000 residential and non‑residential properties lie in areas where maintaining defences may no longer be technically feasible or economically justified. A proportion of these properties will likely require managed realignment or full relocation.

This is transformational in the literal sense: entire neighbourhoods, villages, and coastal economies may need to move along the entire UK coastline.

Delaying decisions because “the problem is far in the future” is itself a form of maladaptation. The paper stresses that the need for transformation is an urgent question for today, not a future generation.

How am I supporting this transformational change along the UK coast?

I support this transformation by developing local‑first, community‑centred digital tools that make coastal knowledge accessible to the people who need it most.  My approach draws on the barefoot‑developer ethos:

building small, local‑first tools and explanations that help people understand their coastline in ways that feel human, accessible, and grounded in place

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Rather than relying on large, centralised systems, I create home‑cooked software and  clear communication resources that enable residents, councils, and local organisations to understand coastal change with confidence.

Alongside this technical work, I provide a public‑service layer that sits deliberately outside traditional consultancy models. Through donation‑based conversations, open knowledge sharing, and reproducible workflows, I ensure that high‑quality coastal expertise is available to individuals and groups who are often excluded from formal processes. This approach strengthens local decision‑making capacity, supports community agency, and helps people navigate the complexity of coastal risk without barriers of cost, jargon, or institutional distance.

This work is underpinned by a mission‑locked governance structure, with B Corporation principles embedded directly into my Articles of Association.  This ensures that public benefit, transparency, and ethical practice are not optional values but legally binding commitments that guide every aspect of the organisation. By combining local‑first digital innovation with a mission‑protected operating model, I am contributing to a long‑term cultural shift in how the UK understands, communicates, and responds to coastal change — building resilience that is community‑owned, equitable, and grounded in place.

How is this public service funded?

This Knowledge Hub is funded almost entirely from my own pocket. I support it using income from my full‑time work as a coastal specialist, and I donate all of my time in kind.

The only other support comes from small contributions from people who find this work valuable. If you’d like to help, you can use the “Buy me a coffee” button in the footer or visit the page directly at https://buymeacoffee.com/coastalgeohazardsexperts (opens in new tab)

If you’d like to support the growth of the Knowledge Hub and spend focused time with me exploring coastal risk, new ideas, or your own projects, the Book a donation meeting option is a meaningful way to contribute while helping keep all resources open and accessible for everyone.