Definition

A condition in which decision‑makers rely primarily on past experiences and emotionally salient events when allocating resources, leading them to reinforce existing systems even when analytical evidence suggests that future conditions will require different adaptation pathways. This bias restricts long‑term flexibility, reduces the range of viable adaptation options, and increases the risk of maladaptation.

Why it matter

Infrastructure decisions made today will shape society for 50–100 years. If those decisions are guided mainly by recent events rather than long‑term analysis, we risk: reinforcing vulnerable systems, delaying investment in emerging alternatives, creating costly dead ends, reducing future resilience. To avoid this, we need planning approaches that: Combine experiential insights with analytical foresight; Identify potential lock‑in points early; Keep adaptation pathways open; Make long‑term uncertainty a central design parameter. Approaches like adaptation pathways and dynamic adaptive planning offer promising tools—but only if we use them proactively.